Here’s the good news: we can prevent future pandemics.
But only if we take steps to protect the environment and restore its natural defences, according to an international group of 22 leading scientists.
“There is no great mystery about the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic – or of any modern pandemic,” said Dr Peter Daszak, chair of the panel which was convened by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
COVID-19 is the sixth global health crisis since the flu pandemic of 1918 and “its emergence has been entirely driven by human activities,” the report says, adding that there are 1.7 million “undiscovered” viruses in mammals and birds – up to 827,000 of which could infect people.
“The same human activities that drive climate change and biodiversity loss also drive pandemic risk through their impacts on our environment. Changes in the way we use land, unsustainable trade, production and consumption disrupt nature and increase contact between wildlife, livestock, pathogens and people.” This contact allows viruses to cross over between species and spread more rapidly around the world.
Prevention is better than reaction
The group says that, rather than tackling pandemic outbreaks after they occur, we should be acting now to prevent them through greater conservation efforts and ending the overexploitation of Earth’s resources.
“The overwhelming scientific evidence points to a very positive conclusion,” said Daszak. “We have the increasing ability to prevent pandemics – but the way we are tackling them right now largely ignores that ability.”
Daszak says the fact that human activity has brought about such a rapid change in the natural environment proves we also have the ability to make change in the right direction – but “our approach has effectively stagnated”.
Global action needed
Forecasting that the global cost of the COVID-19 pandemic may already be as high as $16 trillion, the IPBES report calls for the creation of a high-level intergovernmental council on pandemic prevention to coordinate a global action to prevent future outbreaks.
If no action is taken, the report says future pandemics will happen more often, spread faster and kill more people than COVID-19. The panel says the economic cost of the current pandemic is 100 times the estimated cost of preventing it by protecting nature.
They call for “changes to reduce the types of consumption, globalized agricultural expansion and trade that have led to pandemics. This could include taxes or levies on meat consumption, livestock production and other forms of high pandemic-risk activities,” the report says.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts that by 2030 global meat consumption per head will reach 45.3 kg, almost double the level in the mid-1960s.
Although COVID-19 lockdowns have reduced air pollution, a recent study warned that increased poverty caused by the pandemic could lead to more environmental damage as people return to activities like wildlife poaching and clearing forests for crops to survive.
The World Economic Forum’s recent report, Vision Towards a Responsible Future of Consumption, called on consumer industries to encourage sustainable consumption, reducing environmental impacts and developing a circular economy, reusing resources to reduce waste.