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Trade, tariffs and transformation: Media leaders on Trump‘s return to the White House

  • Trump was sworn in as US president — again .
  • The inauguration coincided with the first day of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos.
  • In Davos, media leaders and political commentators gathered to discuss what to expect from ‘Trump 2.0’.

Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on Monday, ushering in a new era of US leadership that has the potential to reshape norms and institutions related to international cooperation.

The inauguration for Trump’s second, non-consecutive term coincided with the first day of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Over 3,000 public and private sector leaders are participating in the event, including over 50 heads of state and hundreds of top government officials. Trump is scheduled to address Davos participants via video link on Thursday.

Trump’s return to the White House is a key topic of discussion in Davos given he has promised to pursue ambitious shifts to US policy that will likely have wide-ranging impacts on the global economy. These include imposing steep tariffs on other major economies, reassessing long-held military and diplomatic alliances, reforming multilateral institutions and rolling back an array of US regulations.

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Speaking to TIME ahead of the meeting, the Forum’s President and CEO Børge Brende explored the future of multilateralism, noting that there will be more focus on US national interests in Washington.

“Will this be multipolarity with multilateralism? Or will it be multipolarity with a clearly shrinking role for multilateralism?” he said. “It is not defined yet, but it will be, in my view, a more multipolar order because there are more nations in the mix, but the US is still extremely important.”

In Davos on Monday, media leaders and political commentators gathered to discuss Trump’s return to power in a public session, exploring in particular what impact Trump is likely to have on US foreign policy.

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“I see the Trumpian agenda essentially as a more comprehensive and forceful expression of American power on a much more limited geographic scope,” said Patrick Foulis, the foreign editor of The Economist.

Trump’s return to the White House comes as the war in Ukraine continues to rage as well as on the heels of a ceasefire announcement in Gaza.

“America spent $183 billion on Ukraine. I do not anticipate that President Trump is going to spend the same,” Sam Jacobs, the editor-in-chief of TIME, said during the panel discussion. But added that he has also promised to “solve the Ukraine-Russia war tomorrow.”

On the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, Mina Al-Oraibi, the editor-in-chief of The National, suggested that it was “Trump 2.0” that ultimately got the deal finalized. “Ultimately it was the Trump factor,” Al-Oraibi added. “Trump clearly said there had to be a ceasefire before inauguration.”

Nonetheless, Foulis added that Trump’s second term begins amid an extremely complex geopolitical backdrop. “The world is colossally more dangerous than when he was first in office,” he said, noting that “American deterrence has collapsed around the world” and other countries are “simply not as intimidated by the superpower.”

Tensions between the US and China—and how Trump might influence them—was another major issue area of discussion.

During his presidential campaign and as president-elect, Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose steep tariffs on Chinese imports. Just last week, for instance, Trump declared on social media that the US would being collecting “our Tariffs, Duties, and all Revenue that come from Foreign sources.”

Tariffs, which are taxes applied on imports from foreign countries, have not been a significant share of US government revenue for decades. In 2023, for instance, import duties on goods made up 2% of the federal government’s tax revenue. Most economists maintain that when tariffs are imposed, the costs are passed on to consumers.

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“In large majorities, Americans recognize that tariffs will increase the prices of goods,” Jacobs said, adding, however, that “it’s very hard for any of us to sit here and say, here’s what the US-China plan is going to look like five years from now.”

In the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook, the vast majority of economists surveyed (89%) said they expect a trade war of tit-for-tat trade restrictions between the US and China. The report adds that protectionism was identified in the survey as the factor most likely to drive lasting changes to global trade patterns.

“We could see states of emergency declared on various things, including trade,” Foulis stated, adding that foreign exchange markets are already adjusting in preparation for the implementation of US tariffs.

During the discussion, one theme repeatedly emerged: uncertainty.

“The unpredictability that Trump represents, is also the unpredictability of the world,” Al-Oraibi staid.

Trump and his incoming administration have stated that a slew of executive orders can be expected in the coming days. The policy directives are expected to be related to tariffs, immigration, the government bureaucracy and social media regulations, to name a few. Foulis noted that the expected “flurry of executive orders” will likely “test the capacity of American institutions.”

Jacobs added that on the scale of expected executive action, the incoming “Trump presidency could be a factor of 200 times more unpredictable, more volatile than the first term.”


Source: WEF

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