The US election is heating up with incumbent Donald Trump fighting to ‘win four more years’ against Democratic candidate and Obama’s VP Joe Biden. With the November election date nearing, the issues that both candidates are standing for have never been more important. With last election’s polls showing an overwhelming victory for Hillary Clinton, pollsters are reticent to declare an early winner, despite Biden leading. Many factors could affect the outcome before election day. But it seems the economy is looming as the largest one. But how influential is the economy for those planning to bet on the US presidential election?
How Important are the Odds?
One way of determining which factors are important, especially as policies and platforms are unveiled, is to see how the odds change based on these policies. As the odds on the next US President show, Biden is looking most likely to win as of mid-September ( 4/5 or 1.8 compared to Trump’s 11/10 or 2.1) but this could change. As each candidate unveils their economic plans, we are likely to see polls reflecting wavering support.
How Important is the Economy?
The economy is at the forefront of most people’s minds, according to the Pew Research Center, which suggests that 79% of registered voters claim the economy is the most important factor. Both Biden and Trump have unveiled an economic plan, which bettors should take note of when weighing up the odds. Indeed, Trump’s stimulus plans for 2020 led to a bump in the polls back in April 2020, which suggests that the economic relief bills he has already signed could hold him in good stead.
The Road to Victory
Both candidates have pledged more than $1 billion on infrastructure. This may be integral, but it isn’t the catchy slogan that might win votes. Biden may vow to fix roads and boost broadband, but this isn’t as repeatable as Trump’s mammoth aim to Make American Great Again, Again by Keeping America Great.
The attitude towards American greatness is clearly something that should be monitored. Electors may see Trump as patriotically supporting the country, while Biden suggests it needs improvements to its infrastructure. But for states and areas that need infrastructure development, this could be a key policy that determines where their vote goes.
Will Going Green Keep Growth in the Green?
Biden’s commitment to tackling climate change is also important – informed by the huge amount of Democratic support for Bernie Sanders’s Green New Deal and the real-time impact of climate change being felt. This could be influential, especially with economic reports indicating that going green would save money in the long run.
— Forbes (@Forbes) July 14, 2020
However, $2 trillion sounds like a lot of money, especially for middle Americans in a recession. Bettors should watch out for how the international community responds to the climate change commitments. It has become a huge factor – with 42% deeming it important, according to Pew. This could alter how both candidates stand in the polls.
Those betting on the US presidential election should take note of many factors that could change the odds on who will become the 46th President. But one of the most important – and connected to almost all others – is the economy. For those interested in betting, carefully watch the economic policies and plans and the responses to these as this will likely influence polls, which in turn influence the odds and possibly the outcome.